analyst_crew / CRM incrementality

For iGaming CRM & retention teams

Know what your CRM actually earns. In NGR, not opens.

Independent, holdout-based measurement of every campaign and lifecycle flow, computed in your own warehouse. One number per campaign: incremental NGR after bonus cost.

Audit my last quarter See the method

Works with Customer.io today. Optimove, Smartico, Braze, Xtremepush and Fast Track next. Data never leaves your infrastructure.

Example campaign report

Metric, 14 days

Sent

Holdout

Depositors

8.1%

6.0%

NGR / player

€14.20

€11.60

Bonus cost / player

€1.90

€0.00

Net incremental NGR / player

+€0.70 ±0.30

Illustrative numbers. Your report uses your deposits, GGR and bonus tables.

Conversion is not revenue

Receiver conversion counts players who would have deposited anyway. Active and VIP segments look best while bonuses go to people who did not need them.

The vendor grades its own homework

Built-in control groups are reported by the platform that sends the messages, on conversion, with auto-shrinking controls and unpublished statistics.

Three tools, three numbers

Multi-vendor stacks produce uplift figures that never add up to one answer: what did CRM contribute to NGR this month?

How it works

A measurement layer that sits beside your CRM, not inside it. Installed in your warehouse in 4–6 weeks.

01

Assign holdouts

5–10% of each campaign audience is held back, assigned deterministically in your warehouse before send, and pushed to the CRM as one profile flag.

02

Join deliveries to money

Sends, opens and clicks come back through the platform's warehouse sync and are linked to deposits, GGR and bonus cost per player.

03

Measure the difference

Sent versus holdout, by campaign, lifecycle flow and segment, with confidence intervals. Intent-to-treat, so delivery failures cannot flatter the result.

04

Report in your KPIs

Incremental GGR, ROI, Bonus-to-GGR, R2D and churn impact, monthly, in a dashboard your Head of CRM can take to the board.

What you get

One euro figure: what CRM earned this month, net of bonuses
The list of campaigns and bonus types you can cut without losing revenue
Per-flow view: Welcome, FTD to R2D, Reload, Reactivation, Churn, VIP
Early-warning score for declining VIP deposits
An independent check on your CRM vendor's uplift reports

Built for regulated operators

Self-excluded, cooling-off and restricted players never enter any group
Transactional and Responsible Gambling messages are never held back
Runs inside your ClickHouse, BigQuery or Snowflake; no player data leaves
No PII needed: player id, timestamps, amounts

Platforms

Platform	Native control groups	What we add	Status
Customer.io	Holdout tests, conversion only	NGR net of bonuses, per flow and segment	Available
Optimove	Per-campaign, auto-shrinking control	Program-level, independent, fixed holdout	Next
Smartico / Xtremepush	Control %, conversion comparison	Revenue uplift and significance	Next
Braze / Fast Track	Global control (Braze); undocumented (Fast Track)	Cross-vendor single number	Roadmap

Engagement

Step 1

Retrospective audit

Last quarter's campaigns, quasi-control estimate of incremental NGR and bonus leakage. 2–3 weeks.

€3,000–5,000

Step 2

Holdout implementation

Assignment, CRM flag loop, measurement models and dashboard in your warehouse. 4–6 weeks.

€12,000–20,000

Ongoing

Monthly measurement

Monthly report, new-campaign onboarding, bonus economics review, second CRM connector when needed.

€1,500–2,500 / month

Start with one campaign.

Pick a regular marketing campaign you believe in. We hold back 10% for two weeks and show you what it earned, net of bonuses. Then decide about the rest.

Built by a CRM data engineer running Customer.io and Smartico pipelines for a multi-brand, multi-licence operator. Based in Poznań, working across EU and UK time zones.

Book a 20-minute call